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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

FRB Forecasting Models Predict Recovery, IMF On Global Energy Subsidies, and More Insider Trading

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast--April 2015
How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies
SEC charged several amateur golfers  
May 2015 Business Leaders Survey
Liberty Economics, the research leg of the NY Fed, published a post titled The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast--April 2015. The post in the first in a two-part series by about the usefulness of various types of "economic forecasts, such as judgmental forecasts or model-based forecasts." All five models continue to predict "a gradual recovery in economic activity with a progressive but slow return of inflation toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) long-run target of 2 percent."

The IMF published a working paper titled How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? The paper provides a summary of the updated picture on energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. The paper focuses on the effects of post-tax energy subsides and what happens when consumer prices are below supply costs.

The SEC charged several amateur golfers of insider trading. Douglas Parigian pled guilty to "criminal charges of conspiracy and securities fraud for his role in an insider trading ring involving trading in the stock of Massachusetts-based American Superconductor Corporation." Parigian pled guilty along with Eric McPhail, "for conspiracy and securities fraud and, for Parigian only, lying to FBI agents." Parigian evidently used the information provided by McPhail to profit on the purchase of American Superconductor stock and options. The case against Parigian, McPhail and another individual, Jamie Meadows, is ongoing, according to the press release.

Source: Business Leaders Survey
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's May 2015 Business Leaders Survey was released on Monday. The survey shows moderate expansion in the region's service sector with the index up two points to 12.8. According to the survey, "respondents continued to view the business climate as worse than normal". The prices paid index also rose three points to 43.9, suggesting continued increases in input prices. At the same time the prices received index slipped two points to 6.6.

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