My predictions are roughly the same as they were before the virus: buy capital assets -- stay away from debt, but everything else is fair game.
Because prior to COVID, the Fed was fully committed to supporting the market. And now, after-COVID, the Fed and every major central bank around the world has doubled down on their commitment to support the market as this AP reporter discusses in the following segment:
So my predictions for 2020 remain the same, except for a few changes, which I will discuss at the end of this post.
For a glimpse of what my predictions were before the virus, here's a post I wrote in January 2020. It was titled, "2020 Predictions":
There are several ways to look at the current market, but the best is with a historical lens.
We know that debt deflation is on its way, if not already here. We also know that the Federal Reserve has more power than it ever has. It has the full use of the American dollar and new tools like quantitative easing and reverse repo agreements to pump large amounts of liquidity into the market.
Central banks all over the world have done the same. Japan is the leader of the pack, followed by the EU. They are in a panic to stave off deflation. So much so, that they employed a policy of negative interest rates. A move which is akin to winning the battle by moving the sun.
But, now that we know the extent to which central banks will go and the degree of power they have over the world economy, I think it's fair to say that we shouldn't be surprised by anything. I predict two things will happen over the next 50 years:
1) The stock market will be permanently supported by the Federal Reserve. It will never come down.
2) The United States will enter into a long, protracted deflationary period. It will experience massive layoffs and bankruptcies as the rest of the economy cycles through what should be a recession.
In other words, what you can expect is a stock market that's booming -- anyone that owns capital assets will do very well -- but an economy on rails.
Your portfolio should be heavy on index stocks and grocery store chains. You should be quietly accumulating bitcoin, but not in large quantities, and only on dips. Gold, silver and other precious metals are also a good play. These are also great opportunities to load up on your HSA and 401k.
The only thing I would add to my prediction is to stay away from all bank and travel related stocks, but all other capital assets are on the table.
I've also added a new asset class for some of you -- futures. For most people futures are scary and they should be, but there is no better time to be a trader in the futures market. What does that mean for you? It means there's a lot of volatility in the market.
That does not mean futures are easier to trade in times of high volatility, it means it's easier to make money if you already know how to trade.
Brokers make money from every trade, so naturally they're going to tell you that volatility makes trading futures and options easier, but it doesn't. That would be like saying higher waves makes it easier to surf. High waves are actually very dangerous if you don't know how to surf. They are only good for those that already know how to surf. Everyone else WILL GET WIPED OUT.
Trading is like any other sport. It comes naturally for some people; it takes 10,000 hours or more for others.
In my next article I'll talk more about the futures market and how you can participate.