Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Coinpot Faucet Calculator - Update

I’ve had a lot of people ask for an update to my original article. Instead of updating the original chart, I wanted to provide you with a calculator for you to use/share/edit. It’s available in GoogleDocs here: Coinpot Faucet Calculator.

The model is very simplistic, but gives you an idea for what you can earn in one year. It then gives you the ability to see how much that would be if prices go up by the end of the year. Finally, it provides a way to see how much the crypto made from one year using Coinpot will be worth based on growth rates like the ones we’ve seen over the past 10 years. (Click here for a snapshot of historical prices from 2013. Bitcoin is up over 4000% while Litecoin is up over 1000%.)

The spreadsheet provides a calculator for each faucet based on current claim rates. The final spreadsheet is a chart (shown below). It provides a summary of all three calculators.

Keep in mind, the calculator only looks at one year. It also does not include the mystery bonus, offer bonus or mining bonus. I wanted to err on the side of extreme caution, so each calculator only assumes one claim per day.

The base rate assumes no referrals, 1 claim per day and an average of 50% loyalty. The mid rate assumes 100 referrals, 1 claim per day and an average of 75% loyalty. The max rate assumes 500 referrals, 1 claim per day and an average of 100% loyalty. Note, the max rate is not a maximum. It is only used as a max case. Theoretically, there are no limits.




I can personally attest to the mid case. I have around 80 active referrals and only make one claim per day. I’m on track to make more than $235, but that’s because the values above don’t include the mystery bonus or Coinpot tokens, which add up. On average, I get around 3000 tokens per day. Again, I wanted to be very conservative here so those tokens are not included.

You can play with a number of scenarios around loyalty and referrals. While I don’t want to dissuade anyone from doing this, I think referral activity is critical. This way, even if you can’t make daily claims, you’ll still have a growing Coinpot. If you don’t get referrals, this isn’t going to payoff. So, I’ve created a contest for the best referral idea.

 

One final word

A chap recently asked me how to convince people that this isn’t a scam. My answer is: you can’t. But you CAN point out that a scam generally requires you to spend money. Coinpot will never ask you for money. The only thing you are required to give them is an email address.

 

Also, remember that bitcoin is still the world’s fastest growing asset. And, Coinpot is a great way to “get your feet wet” (as one person commented) in the world of cryptocurrency. The learning curve can be steep for some. It’s also a great way to earn bitcoin without having to worry about price fluctuations, providing ID or paying any fees. When the price goes down, the claim is higher. And since I know the price is going back up, it’s an opportunity.

 

Finally, the goal here is not to make a quick buck. You will be disappointed if that’s your goal. This is not a get rich quick scheme. Put simply, this is a great way to earn small amounts of what I believe will be the next reserve currency for the world. It may not be worth much now, but the goal is to hold onto this asset for the long-term (at least 10 years). All you’re risking is your time. Even if you just do it for one year, you’ll always have it and its value will grow over time.

Thursday, July 26, 2018

FDIC Chairman's "Living Will" Speech @ Wharton, NY Fed Revises GDP Down, FDIC Publishes Annual Report & Survey Shows Slight Wage Relief

Remarks by Martin J. Gruenberg, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation “Resolving a Systemically Important Financial Institution: A Progress Report”, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania; Philadelphia, PA


You can learn a great deal by listening to the "public" speeches given by Fed leadership. It's one thing to give testimony on Capital Hill, it's quite another to give a speech in front of people that actually know what you're talking about. In this speech, Gruenberg, the Chairman of the FDIC, discusses the actions taken over the past 10 years to ensure against another "Great Recession".

He discusses the establishment of the Dodd-Frank Act and the authority it gave the FDIC to manage the orderly failure of banks in times of crisis. Among other things, the new authorities gave the FDIC:

        The ability to place the financial firm, including its holding company, into a receivership process;
        An Orderly Liquidation Fund to assure liquidity for the orderly wind down and liquidation of the failed firm;
        Authority to impose a short stay on derivatives contracts; and
        The ability to coordinate with foreign authorities in the case of a firm with global operations.

"The progress has been substantial and I believe not well appreciated," Gruenberg concludes. What hasn't he and his team been appreciated for?


The Evolution of the Living Will Process


As a way to create a framework around an orderly bank liquidation, the FDIC created the living will process. According to Gruenberg, the living will "required both the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to consider the objectives of the process, the standards and the guidance that would need to be provided to the firms to achieve the objectives, and the means of engagement with the firms to assist them in following the guidance". This process required banks to provide a description of the following:

    The firm’s strategy for orderly resolution in bankruptcy during times of financial distress;
    The range of actions the firm proposes to take in resolution; 
    Liquidity and capital needs and resources of the firm;
    A description of the firm’s organizational structure, material entities, interconnections, and interdependencies; and
    The firm’s corporate governance process. 

The only thing that really matters here is liquidity. With the right liquidity and capital resources, any crisis can be avoided or at least pushed off, but for how long?


The truth is, none of these changes would have saved Lehman Brothers or Bear. None of these resolutions would have made AIG confess to creating bad securities. The truth is, everything happened exactly how the banks wanted it to happen. They got a huge bailout, 10 years of free money, and trillions in reserves at the Fed. To top it all off, Dodd-Frank approved a resolution to pay banks for those reserves. Who pays the interest? We do. The American taxpayer. We don't control rates or the amount of reserves held at the Fed, but we have to pay whatever rate the Fed sets on those reserves. Sounds fair. This is why people are gravitating toward Bitcoin and precious metals.

In other news, Nowcast is a forecast of the upcoming GDP announcement. It was updated and revised down to 3.11%. The leading causes are due to a decline in:
  •     capacity utilization,
  •     industrial production,
  •     general business conditions (as reported in a daily brief last week); and,
  •     retail sales.

In other words, all things driven by consumer demand are starting to decline, while anything driven by debt (inflation, pricing and housing) are on the rise.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey/Business Leaders Survey included a supplemental survey on wages, a critical piece of the consumer demand equation. Wages are of key interest because without wages, GDP will continue to fall -- not everyone has access to massive amounts of debt. What does the survey show? Job openings are taking longer to fill, manufacturers are hiring more, and starting pay is going up. Will it be enough to impact earnings? My guess is no. Why? Wall Street doesn't like wage increases.

Friday, June 22, 2018

The FDIC Lowers Credit Standards, Household Debt Jumps, General Business Conditions Fall & There's An Increase in Jumbo Loans

 





 

On February 14, 2018, the FDIC Board of Directors adopted a rule to permit the removal of "external credit ratings". 

 

"The final rule removes references to external credit ratings and replaces them with appropriate standards of creditworthiness."

In other words, as long as a bank makes under $1 billion in total assets it doesn't need to reference external credit ratings in order to label an asset or security as "investment grade".  These classifications are used for capital allocation and pledged assets. The rule reduces the need to classify assets as investment grade with a much lower bar -- as of this ruling "An entity has adequate capacity to meet financial commitments if the default risk is low, and the full and timely repayment of principal and interest is expected."

The rule also "adds cash to the list of assets eligible for pledging and separately lists Government Sponsored Enterprise obligations as a pledgeable asset category."

So mortgaged backed securities are now considered pledgeable assets as well as cash? And, if you have cash, why do you need to pledge assets?

Household Debt Jumps as 2017 marks the 5th consecutive year of annual growth based on the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

 

The report reveals that total household debt reached a new peak in Q4 of 2017, rising $193 billion to reach $13.15 trillion. Balances climbed:
  • 1.6% on mortgages, 
  • 0.7% on auto loans, 
  • 3.2% on credit cards; and, 
  • 1.5% on student loans.
This adds to the market's general instability, but we're not hearing anything about that from the Fed. It's also important to remember that debt is a form of inflation. It's essentially the creation of money out of nothing. Due to quantitative easing, banks have an unprecedented level of capital to "lend" and it's pumping all that "fake cash" into the market every day via mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student loans. Asset values are the highest they've been in years, far surpassing what they were in 2007, jut prior to the Great Recession. Gas prices have been on the rise since July of 2017, still inflation is low and steady. Clearly there's some manipulation at play.


According to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, a monthly survey of manufacturers in NY conducted by the Federal Reserve, the general business conditions index fell five points to 13.1.  

 

This suggests a "slower pace of growth than in January".  This at a time when the stock market was setting new highs. Perhaps the most notable takeaway is a remark about input prices and prices paid which confirms a theory of higher inflation. According to the report, "Input price increases picked up noticeably, with the prices paid index reaching its highest level in several years." The highest level in several years is quite significant. So companies are paying more for inputs and they are charging more for products and services. I wonder who is paying for those products and services?

 

A report by the Fed regarding jumbo loans -- these are loans that are over ~$625,500 -- suggests the number is growing.

According to the Fed, there's been a marked increase in the number of jumbo loans on the market today. This isn't surprising because banks have an unlimited amount of capital to lend due to quantitative easing and the $2.2 trillion sitting in reserves at the Fed. This post shows how "the supply of jumbo mortgages has improved in recent years as banks have become more willing to take on mortgage credit risk on their own balance sheets".


Final Thoughts: The Fed has been waiting on inflation to go above 2% to raise rates. The truth is, inflation has been over 2% since 2008. It went up and never really came back down. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates artificially low and corporations have taken advantage of the loophole by using stock buybacks to artificially push up earnings. Now it's too late to raise rates, the economy is about to crash on its own.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

3 Quick Reasons Why Bitcoin is About To Go Up

Everyone wants to know when the price of Bitcoin is going back up. In this very brief article I'm going to give you three reasons why the price of Bitcoin is about to go up and well past $20K by the end of the year.

Reason #1: The price of Bitcoin and cryptos in general falls every year in Q1. Each year, the price rebounds and soars by the end of the year.



As you can see from the charts above, this is a normal trend for Bitcoin and one that the community has come to expect. 

Reason #2: Despite the call for regulation by central banks, nation states are starting to realize their own power. While the SEC and CFTC battle over who gets to regulate cryptocurrency, Arizona just passed a bill allowing it as a form of payment by the Department of Revenue. In other words, you will be able to pay your Arizona taxes in Bitcoin. There's also a resolution passed in Congress calling for a pro-bitcoin national policy.  When/if that resolution gains traction, the price of Bitcoin will soar.

Reason #3: Third and perhaps most importantly, hedge funds and other large institutional players are just now getting into the market. They could not enter the market prior to Bitcoin futures which started in December 2017. Below is one of my favorite videos in support of this, hedge fund manager clearly explains what institutional players are doing right now.


It might take six to eighteen months, but Bitcoin is a much more valuable way to store your digital currency. Remember, only 9% of the world's currency is physical, the rest is digital. Institutions get it and they're getting on board.

Final thoughts: Bitcoin is extremely volatile. For this reason, you don't want to buy at the highs, but rather the lows. Bitcoin is officially in a low cycle and now is a great time to buy. If you don't buy now, save up to buy next year at this time.

Where to buy? You can buy Bitcoin from an exchange (Binance or Local Bitcoin) to hold yourself or you can purchase an investment product, like an IRA. Bitcoin IRAs have the same tax treatment as traditional IRAs.
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