Dogecoin: DBeS2gHm79fHsxkYWTatbCYonxxc8fQn4M
Bitcoin: bc1qga4p8wxjvc8vx2l9p5y35ac7t0q0jqf8lmsf9y

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Technically, The Market Is About To Take a Dive in Q1 2021

Technically, the market is about to take a dive in Q1. It's going to be brutal unless the Fed comes in and starts buying, which it very well might do. I'll talk about why I don't think that's going to matter in a moment. First, let's revisit bitcoin.

As advised, we hit a bottom in bitcoin in Sept/early Oct and then started trending up. We passed 13,500 by the end of October. Then we made new highs and now we're trading at 23,440.90. 

I told you to get in at 11,000 in October and now we're at 23,440.90. We doubled our stack!

I'm a HODLer, so I don't sell bitcoin, but if you're in this for the trading opportunity, now is the time to take profit. 

Don't fret, another opportunity is coming. 

What about equity futures?

I'm putting myself on the line here, because I know the Fed can come in and start buying up assets at any time (to the point of insolvency), but I think the pressure is going to be so strong, it won't matter. 

The Pressure

The pressure started last March. It's been gaining momentum all year. At some point, the bow will break and nothing will be able to stop it. That's just how the technical market goes. 

The Federal Reserve has warned of this. They've been staunch advocates of direct stimulus, but politics has made direct stimulus difficult. So now we're in a pressure cooker and all it takes is one spark. That spark is 12,000. That's the RUBICON.

How will it happen? 

The chart below is a daily Nasdaq futures chart. It's showing us that we need to start to selling when the Nasdaq breaks through 12,000. There might be a slight pullback on that, but it will continue down and it will continue for at least 30 days. 


There will also be a pullback at around 10,000. If the market continues through 10,000 -- hold on to your horses because we're in for a wild ride.

What Else Can You Do?

I'd also start looking at buying gold (offshore) and if you own equities, focus on companies that are in countries that had a large direct stimulus package. 

The graph below is from Time Magazine.

It shows that Japan has been the leader of the pack on spending as a percentage of GDP. Japan started direct payments before COVID to stave off deflation. That's where the Fed got the $1,200 figure from to begin with (10,000 HK = $1,200 US). Japan made the first direct payment in what is referred to as a helicopter drop by the Fed. In fact, Japan did it just before the market tanked in the US (February 2020). And, they've continued to be the front-runner in this effort. 

So, my money is on Japan. Specifically, I'm looking at companies/start-ups that rely primarily on Japanese spending.

I'll provide more commentary at the end of January. Until then, short US stocks, buy gold and companies that rely on Japanese spending, and HODL bitcoin.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Bitcoin Price: On Our Way To New Highs By EOY

As advised, we hit a bottom in Sept/early Oct and then started trending up. We passed 13,500 by the end of October.

Now that we've passed 13,500,  technical charts are showing a target of 18,000 and possibly new highs by the end of the year depending on momentum. Level of support is 15,000 to 15,300.


Monday, November 2, 2020

How Much Bitcoin Can You Earn On Cointiply in 1 Year? $8,000+

 

How much can you make on Cointiply?

To figure this out, we need to create a model. The model is based on the following assumptions:

  1. There’s also offer walls (visiting webpages, downloading apps, watching videos), surveys, videos, and paid to click ads.
  2. You can also boost your earnings temporarily and permanently by playing the game Cointivity, which is a little mining game created by the folks at Cointiply (we’ll talk about this a bit later as well).
  3. Last but not least, you can earn 5% interest on your balance if you have over 35,000 coins, which isn’t hard to do.

The FAUCET

Cointiply has one of the best faucets out there. It’s attached to a progressive jackpot, which as of now is for 272,881 coins.


Offer Walls

Cointiply offer-walls are a great way to earn coins. According to the website, top users earn 100’s of thousands coins from offer walls. The most popular offer walls are Theorem Reach, Tap Research, Adscend Media and Adgate Media. There are more than a dozen others. They are all different, so find one you like and work it. The good news is you have variety.

Earning Interest

Cointiply pays 5% annual interest on coin balances over 35,000 coins.

  • $283.20; and,
  • 0.005030120818
  1. This amount is based on both conservative and aggressive assumptions.

The Cointivity Game & It’s Impact On Earnings

This is perhaps the main reason I like Cointiply so much — there are so many ways to boost your earnings. The Cointivity Game gives you the ability to boost your earnings.


  1. Boost your earnings potential on the day that you do those offers by purchasing “items”.

Cointivity Maximization Strategy:

Select one day a week to do all 7 offers and then purchase items that boost earnings for that day.

Items: Equippables Vs. Consumables

Everyone starts off with 2 slots: 1 for Consumables and 1 for Equippables. Every time you unlock another level, you also get more slots to put your items in. Remember, you want lots of items because they boost your earnings, but you have to have slots to place them in.

  • Equippables are items that are part of your equipment. They are long-term in nature and they boost your earnings permanently.


Cointivity Collections

Cointivity Collections are a way to get an even higher earnings boost. This is a great way to maximize earnings if you know you’re going to be on Cointiply for 4 to 72 hours.


  • two Consumables that temporarily increase the offer reward by 3% each
  • one Collectible which temporarily boosts my offer account by another 7%.

Chat Rain

Chat Rain is an opportunity to make a portion of the Chat Rain pool. I’ve never made much on Chat Rain, but I want to include it here even though I don’t include it in the model because you don’t really have to do anything for it.

Important: You have to opt in to the Chat Rain pool by clicking on the “Tap to Qualify for Rain Pool” button.


Cointiply Multiplier

I’m not a big fan of gambling, so I didn’t mention this in the opening remarks. You want to earn and hold (or hodl as the bitcoin community likes to say). That said, if you’re into this for the gambling, you can wager as few as 10 coins or as many as 50,000 coins in Cointiply’s multiplier game. The maximum multiplier is 61.3x so you could make as much as 613 coins from a 10 coin wager, but it’s highly unlikely.


What’s Next

I’ll be researching the impact of referrals and premium memberships on earnings.

Friday, October 9, 2020

Daily #BTC Futures Chart - We Are On Our Way To $13,500 (#Bitcoin Daily Chart)

 Get your orders in. We're on our way up to $13,500 by the end November 2020.


 
The chart below was taken at the end of September. We were in a period of consolidation while the market decided on which way to go, a breakout south or a continuation with the trend that's been established over the last 6 months
 
Time to get your buy orders -- we're going higher.



Thursday, September 3, 2020

My Favorite Technical Trading Indicator - Trend Lines (#futures #qqq #nasdaq)


“It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.”  -Warren Buffett

If you follow any market for an extended period of time you will notice certain patterns in price action. In particular, you will notice that the market moves in waves. It is pushed in certain directions by large buyers and sellers in the markets. These large buyers and sellers have the ability to change the direction of the wave pattern. And, when they all align you get a tsunami. Just like the guy trying to find that monster wave, traders are on the look out for the same phenomena.

At what point do you know the wave is about to "break"? This is the million dollar question, because in surfing and trading, timing is everything.

One of my favorite tools to use in trading are trend-lines. Trend-lines help you to see where the "break" is.

Trend-lines are used to find the trend, but they also tell you when the trend has changed direction. That is, when another large buyer or seller has entered the market and changed the direction of the prevailing trend. If the dominant trend is up and a major player comes in and starts selling, it will push the trend in another direction. This push causes a "break" in the trend. In the world of trading this is referred to as a breakout.

Let's take a moment to familiarize  ourselves with the following chart. This is my own chart setup on Ninjatrader 7.  We're looking at a price chart of NASDAQ futures (my favorite instrument to trade). 

For now, disregard the bottom half of the chart and just focus on the top segment. Also disregard the green, yellow and orange lines -- we'll talk about what those mean later. For now, just focus on the candlesticks and the blue lines. The blue lines are trend-lines.

At first, you will notice blue lines following the trend up and then the trend changes and starts going down.

Now let's get laser focused on the first trend-line going up.

 

As you can see, the price bounces off the bottom of the trendline three times before finally gaining enough traction to continue upward. It doesn't quite reach the top of the trend-line before it starts trending down. This is when you start looking for a breakout.


The trendline supported the price three times before, and now it's breaking through the trend line. This breach is the breakout. Once you see the breakout, it's time to act. As you can see there are two breakouts. The first one is a breakout down and the second is a breakout up.


 Both breakouts represent an opportunity to "ride the wave".  The trend is up, another wave comes in and starts selling and changes the wave pattern down. The push is so strong that it forces the trend to change direction and that change in direction is marked by a breakout.

In trading, there is no sure thing. The best thing you can do is find an indicator that works 75% of the time. One way to boost your accuracy is by confirming the direction of the breakout with another indicator.

Now we can look at the bottom part of the chart. The breakout down is confirmed with a down movement by both of the bottom indicators. The second breakout is also confirmed by an up movement by both of the bottom indicators.


Now what? Once you find the breakout you want to place a trade with a take profit (TP) that's at least 2x as much as your stop loss (SL). For example, once I see the first breakout I'm going to place a trade with a SL of 40 ticks and a TP at 80 ticks. Some traders like to go for 3x or 4x. That depends on your risk. When you're first starting out, I think it's safe to go for 2x. This way, if you get one trade wrong and one trade right, you're still up.

This is by far my favorite set up. If you have any questions, post them in the comments below or email me at celanbryant @ gmail.com.

Good luck.


Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Campbell's Technical Analysis: Buy The Pullback (Campbell Soup Company ($CPB))



Summary
  • At a time when when the major tenants of investment valuation have been undermined, investors are looking for a confirmation -- a confirmation that the fundamentals aren't lying.
  • Technical analysts study price trends. We look for patterns that play out regardless of the asset being traded.
  • Campbell Soup has been trending up for the past 2 years, but the trend is reversing in the short-term.
  • Long-term play: Buy the pullback. Both the trend-line and the moving average converge around $49.15, which is the best place to put your buy order.
  • Short-term play: You can sell now with a take profit at $49.15. Or, you can buy at $49.15 and take profit at $55 even.

From Edo-period Japan, where traders applied technical analysis to profit from Osaka’s rice futures market, to the 1930's Wyckoff Method still taught in major trading houses today, technical trading withstands the test of time. That's because it's based on price patterns and those price patterns are based on human behavior. Specifically, trading is based on auction mechanics.

So, at a time when the major tenants of investment valuation have been undermined, is it any wonder that technical trading is gaining in popularity again?

  • How can you trust a DCF model that assumes a positive risk-free rate?
  • How can you trust a P/E ratio when companies are sacrificing dividends for stock buybacks.
  • How can you trust an economy with stock prices that move in the opposite direction of earnings? 

In other words, now, more than ever, investors are looking for a confirmation -- a confirmation that the fundamentals aren't lying.

Technical analysts study price trends. We look for patterns that play out regardless of the asset being traded. That's why technical analysis works for everything from rice in Osaka Japan to soup companies like Campbell's (CPB).

Fundamentally, Campbell Soup Company excels in both good and bad times. In other words, people find a use for its products no matter what's happening in the world.

Here's what the CEO had to say on the last earnings call:

“In the quarter, we experienced unprecedented broad-based demand across our brands as consumers sought food that delivered comfort, quality and value. This demand resulted in double-digit increases in organic sales, adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS. In addition, Campbell’s products were purchased by millions of new households, with total company household penetration increasing over 6 percentage points in the quarter compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019.”

We can see this upward trend play out on the technical level as well.

The chart below is split into 4 segments. The top segment is the price chart and the bottom 3 segments are the technical indicators I use to confirm the price trend. As you can see from the top segment of the daily price chart below, the company has been trending up since the beginning of 2019.

For now, let's just focus on the upper part of the chart. The black vertical line is where the company was in September of 2019. The white box is the period in time that the market rallied due to COVID. The yellow and green lines represent the moving average. As you can see, the market likes to use the moving average as a point of support and resistance. This is because institutional traders like to buy and sell at these areas. Campbell Technical Analysis 1  

Now, let's look at the bottom part of the same chart (see below). We're going to compare last year (yellow circles) to this year (blue circles).

As you can see from the price chart at the top, marked by a yellow circle, Campbell's took off in September of last year. Now let's look at the three indicator charts below the price chart. In all three charts, as noted by the green up arrows, the indicators are trending up, which confirms the price trend.

We're coming up on the same time period for 2020. This is marked by the blue circles on the right. The price is going up moving into September 2020, but it looks like it's ready for a pullback.

Now let's look at the 3 indicator charts below the price chart for confirmation. These indicators confirm that the price trend may be reversing, at least temporarily. In all three charts, as noted by the red down arrows, the trend is down or about to go down.Campbell Techincal Analysis 3  

Conclusion: It would appear as though CPBs price is trending up, but it's slightly oversold after the last earnings call so investors can expect a minor pullback. The question is how far? We can use trend lines to answer this question.

The chart below shows trend lines in blue. The trend was lost during the COVID rally, but soon returned to normal. We can use these blue trend lines to help extrapolate the price for the next 2-3 months.

Campbell Technical Analysis 3 

 As you can see from the chart below, we are at the top of the trend line, so this is a bad time to purchase the stock for optimal gain. Campbell's Technical Analysis 4 Investment Recommendation:

Long-term play: Buy the pullback. Both the trend-line and the moving average converge around $49.15, which is the best place to put your buy order.

Short-term play: You can sell now with a take profit at $49.15. Or, you can buy at $49.15 and take profit at $55 even.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Monday, August 10, 2020

Learn How To Trade Futures: Why NOW Is The Perfect Time To Earn A Futures Account


 
“It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.”  -Warren Buffett


I love this quote by Warren Buffett, because it's so true. That's one reason I like to trade futures. With futures, the only way you're going to get caught is if you swim against the tide. So, the most salient phrase of advice for trading futures is: the trend is your friend. In this way, it does not matter if the tide is out or in, just that you know which way it's going. If you can figure out a way to follow the trend, you will do very well in the futures market.

The focus of this post is on the futures market. It's a market that most people are taught to stay away from, and rightly so. However, due to the volatility in today's market, it's also very lucrative, which warrants attention.

So, let me be clear, futures, the investment product I'm about to introduce, cannot be tamed. It is a beast. Think of it as the perfect wave for the experienced surfer.



Due to the unprecedented amount of liquidity being pumped into the market, these are incredibly volatile times.  The waves are HUGE -- they are the kind of waves that people spend their entire lives trying to find, and they're happening every day. They are also the kind of waves that wipe people out, especially inexperienced surfers.

So what are the advantages of trading in the futures market? The futures market is like the stock market on steroids. Market movements are more frequent, which makes technical trading easier

Technical trading is the art of using historical trends and patterns to guide your trades. This is different from fundamental trading, which uses information about the market to guide trades. Most investors use fundamental analysis to determine what to buy and technical analysis to determine when to buy it.  The futures market is largely driven by short-term, technical trades. Traders note certain price points and bid or sell at those price points. 

It's important to remember that trading takes place as an auction. It is an electronic auction with hundreds of buyers and sellers. When more buyers enter the room, the volume of bids goes up, which usually increases the price. Likewise, when buyers leave the room, the volume of bids decreases, which decreases the price. 

Like anything else, trading is a sport. It is said that you must dedicate 10,000 hours to anything to master it and the same can be said for trading. It takes stamina and like large waves, must be respected. 

I started my own journey with trading almost 20 years ago as a trading assistant on the FX sales and trading floor of a large investment bank. I didn't start trading on my own until 13 years later. Then, it took another 3 years for me to start taking it seriously. 

I often ask myself if the journey was worth it and the answer is a pensive yes. The answer is fragile in the beginning, but then over time grows more certain until I gradually realize that it's one of the best things I've ever learned how to do.

Honestly, I struggled with discussing my life as a futures trader because you will have bad days and I didn't want to be responsible for those bad days. If you do this right, you will come to hate me, but then, as you improve, you'll thank me for it. I'll take a bottle of your favorite red wine as a thank you. 


Buy gold & silver bullion - Goldbroker.com  

Step 1:

 
What's the first thing you should do? Take one year to learn through simulation.  Try out at least 5 different platforms, including Ninjatrader and Tradovate. Figure out how you like to see the market. Do you like charts or POC data? Do you like a white or black background? What are your favorite indicators? I'll share some of my favorite indicators with you in a follow up post. This is called, "Developing your workspace" and it is uniquely yours. It takes time to develop. 

Step 2: 

In year two, you're ready to pick your trading instruments. Do you want to trade the futures equity markets or the futures commodity market? There are dozens of futures markets to trade. The one you select depends on your trading style and personal interests. I'll discuss why I prefer the equity markets in a later post.

Step 3: 

In year three, you're ready to test the waters with a live test on a virtual $50K account. Repeat this every 6 months, and no sooner. Over the next 3 years you will develop a few strategies that work for you. You'll go from losing money, to breaking even, to making money. 

If you're just starting out, I recommend two trading houses where you can watch live trading and discuss trading with others.  Learning the lingo is just as important as developing your trading plan. 

The first house is TopStepTrader. These guys have been around a long time. They are a reputable online shop and they have free classes and webinars that you can attend and listen to on a daily basis. To be clear, these classes and webinars are free, YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY FOR ANYTHING TO LISTEN & WATCH.

I also recommend Collective2. This is for people that want to follow the trades of another person. I just started a virtual hedge fund on Colletctive2.

I trade between 1 and 5 contracts on a daily basis and you can sign up to follow my trades on a real time basis. You can even auto-trade my trades for $150. I made $4,165 for each of my followers just today and future posts will discuss the nature of these trades.

These are just two of my favorite ways to monetize your trading knowledge without having to invest your own money. I will continue to share others with you in future posts. 

The most important thing to remember is that you can learn a lot without spending any money. Max out on the free-trial offers and when you run out, contact the company and ask for an extension. 

Monday, August 3, 2020

60 Crypto Faucets: Doge, Bitcoin, Dash, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Monero (Updated 5/27/21)

This post is a continuation from:

Dogecoin Faucet Strategy

 Total

Amount paid per user every 7 days11.77922781





Dogecoin



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://autobitco.in438181600.32565556920.1302622277
https://autoclaim.in438104480.16534827120.06613930846
https://yellowfaucet.ovh44034290.16420495690.06568198276
https://dutchyauto.ovh/439162190.12780812790.05112325114
https://faucets.kickcity.co/43803230.11256038220.04502415287
https://crypto-lovers.club/43781360.10308507310.04123402922
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space4358813640.096180200780.03847208031
https://autofaucet.org438088230.073501579020.02940063161
https://dogepool.xyz443171150.05421798270.02168719308
https://dogemate.com43783520.050767382690.02030695308
*based on doge price of $.40


0.5093318102





Bitcoin



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://a-ads.com/437913900.00012681174365.072469744
https://adbtc.top/439505220.000041276590041.651063602
https://owlfaucet.club/ec/43778580.000013186724140.5274689655
https://larvelfaucet.com438131650.000011502363640.4600945455
https://hotcryp.to/44177840.0000084276190480.3371047619
https://express.dutchycorp.space439662880.0000082681250.330725
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space4360410220.0000077662524460.3106500978
https://autobitco.in43818700.0000071871428570.2874857143
https://dogemate.com437841010.000004890198020.1956079208
https://clickfight.net/43802500.00000466560.186624
*based on bitcoin price of $40K


9.359294351





Cardano



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space4397711100.05668420813$0.096
https://autobitco.in440161500.031304103$0.053
https://autofaucet.org439776330.02493524686$0.042
https://autoclaim.in439772730.02012056007$0.034
https://www.ecmining.club/439778460.01327588643$0.023
https://express.dutchycorp.space4399316280.005106789373$0.009
https://faucetworld.in/4397713500.003824088807$0.007
https://bitsfree.net/multiclaim/ada442683360.003418482143$0.006
https://queenfaucet.website/ada439912640.003296884205$0.006
https://express.dutchycorp.space439918660.002856217552$0.005
*based on cardano price of $1.40


$0.280





Dash



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://crypto-lovers.club44112120.00023118333330.05201625
https://www.cripto.co.in44107100.0001728920.0389007
https://cryptojunkie.net/4422260.0001722850.038764125
https://autobitco.in/43818660.00013098818180.02947234091
https://dogemate.com44199330.0001046796970.02355293182
https://autofaucet.org438082890.000075207681660.01692172837
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space436996610.000068784236010.0154764531
https://best-shopme.com44163480.0000671150.015100875
https://www.ecmining.club441012280.000058934736840.01326031579
https://autoclaim.in/438101040.000046543365380.01047225721
*based on dash price of $225


0.2539379772





Ethereum



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://hotcryp.to/?s=EC_List_ETH44177340.000043247941180.1081198529
http://hostratgeber.de4431910.000032540.08135
https://autobitco.in/43818830.000028580.07145
https://dogemate.com/44123360.000024478888890.06119722222
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space435919290.000020570742730.05142685684
https://crypto-lovers.club4402290.000018766666670.04691666667
https://autoclaim.in438101690.000015885976330.03971494083
https://randomsatoshi.win43796710.000015775070420.03943767606
https://freebcc.org/r/1?s=eth43838370.000015415675680.03853918919
https://9luckybits.com/4420220.00001420.0355
*based on ethereum price of $2500


0.5736524047





Bitcoin Cash



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://coinpayz.xyz/44295150.00014138133330.09896693333
https://cryptojunkie.net/4422190.00011293444440.07905411111
https://dogemate.com44123330.000065149696970.04560478788
https://9luckybits.com/4419420.0000455250.0318675
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space437217560.000041807923280.0292655463
https://autofaucet.org438083080.000038009220780.02660645455
https://autoclaim.in438101130.000033544778760.02348134513
https://autobitco.in43818500.0000308310.0215817
https://money-lover.ml/?r=34430290.000018173333330.01272133333
https://bitcoincash.treasurebits.net43973580.000013052758620.009136931034
*based on bitcoin cash price of $700


0.3782866427





Monero



VisitActive SinceUsersAmount paid per user every 7 days$ *
https://mixfaucet.com/4430420.0008646850.23346495
https://dogemate.com44221130.000185570.0501039
https://autofaucet.dutchycorp.space436994690.00013720477610.03704528955
https://coinpayz.xyz/4429570.000097137142860.02622702857
https://bitcoincyclone.com/4431650.0000657980.01776546
https://autobitco.in43818550.000054658545450.01475780727
https://autofaucet.org438082370.000043431350210.01172646456
https://bitcointrophy.com/4429620.0000433450.01170315
https://autoclaim.in438101060.000041027547170.01107743774
https://best-shopme.com44092290.000039462758620.01065494483
*based on monero price of $270


0.4245264325