Once You Go Crypto, There’s No Going Back: My 2018 Cryptocurrency Portfolio Strategy

Summary

  • Strategy #1 — Bitcoin: 50% — Buy Bitcoin when Bitcoin P/E or NVT (network value-to-transaction ratio) dips.
  • Strategy #2 — Alt-coin: 35% — Buy high visibility, high access coins (platform currencies and top 50 market cap).
  • Strategy #3 — Baby-Crypto: 15% — Buy undervalued baby alt-coins based on a measure of liquidity (transactions to price) and buy orders on the order book.

A few months ago I met someone with a net worth well over $50 million. That’s not uncommon these days. We found ourselves sitting next to each other throughout a seminar. He happened to mention something about wanting to invest in some new thing called ‘Bitcoin’. What ensued was a lengthy discussion about ‘how to invest $1 million in the crypto space’. He had no way of knowing that our conversation would inspire the article Bitcoin Valuation: $4 million.

As both a trader and crypto-enthusiast I get asked this question all the time. Whether you have $1 million or $10,000, my answer generally depends on how much time or money you can invest in the research required to make informed decisions. I advise friends and family to never exchange dollars, euro, M-Pesa, pounds, cowry shells (whatever) for crypto unless you understand what you are buying. Not all coins are the same. Of the top 50 coins by market cap (out of 1,300+), only 8 can be considered Bitcoin or Ethereum clones.

Second, as a piggyback on the first, if you don’t have the time to research cryptos other than Bitcoin (referred to as alt-coin), just buy Bitcoin and/or Ethereum and HODL. You needn’t waste your time with the rest of this article. That’s the extent of your strategy.

Parking lot: HODL is an intentionally misspelled word that started four years ago when GameKyuubi seemed unable to type the word correctly due to some ‘personal issues’. The crypto-community embraced the error and turned it into its own verb.

Third, if you want to add baby alt-coins (read: ICOs and coins less than $.01) to your portfolio, proceed with caution. They are extremely volatile and you must be prepared to lose your entire investment. That said, they can grow up to be quite impressive. Sometimes the growth spurt occurs overnight. With such a payoff, the best strategy invests a small amount in a handful of promising baby alt-coins.

With that said, here’s my crypto portfolio strategy. It is structured in three segments to mitigate risk. It consists of ~31 coins. All positions are meant to be purchased and held for at least 1 year.

 Strategy #1 — (50%) The HODL Churn: This strategy focuses on Bitcoin. Action: Buy Bitcoin when Bitcoin P/E or NVT (network value-to-transaction ratio) dips below 50, sell when it goes above 100. Repeat.

Strategy #2 — (35%) The Mall: This strategy focuses on alt-coins. Action: Buy high visibility, high access alt-coins (platform, exchange, and top 50 market cap).

Strategy #3 — (15%) The Incubator: This strategy focuses on baby alt-coins. Action: Buy baby alt-coins based on a measure of liquidity (transactions to price) and buy orders on the order book.

 

Strategy #1 — (50%) The HODL Churn


I’m a big advocate of Bitcoin. It’s 50% of my crypto portfolio. How do I decide when to buy/sell it? I like to use Bitcoin P/E. What is Bitcoin P/E?

P/E (price to earnings ratio) is a metric commonly used by investment analysts to value stocks with earnings calculated as the market price divided by earnings per share. A possible equivalent to a P/E for Bitcoin was presented at the Token Summit in May 2017 by Chris Burniske. In the following video Burniske provides three calculations for a Bitcoin P/E.






I like calculation #2. It is referred to as the NVT ratio or network value-to-transaction ratio. This is the Bitcoin P/E that I use.

First devised by Willy Woo, the calculation uses a coin’s network value, or the money flowing through the network, as a proxy for earnings. Below is a historic chart of Bitcoin’s NVT ratio. A live and interactive chart is available on his website Woobull.com.












Using the chart above, Woo shows how NVT can be used to forecast a market bubble. It can also provide buy/sell signals. Specifically, if the NVT goes above the normal NVT range, it’s time to sell. If it touches the bottom of the NVT range, it’s time to buy.

Where are we today? The chart would suggest that we are NOT in a bubble today. In Woo’s words, “The transaction value flowing through Bitcoin’s network is perfectly healthy and supports the current valuation.”

What data do I use for Strategy #1? I track the NVT on Woo’s site. This is an easy one.
Unfortunately, this metric isn’t quite ready to be applied across the crypto universe. According to Woo, “Ethereum is only two years old… It will take some time before its NVT ratio settles into a meaningful long term range for bubble detection.”

What can we use to value the rest of the crypto universe? Visibility and access.

 

Strategy #2 — (35%) The Mall


I’d like to think that everyone that buys Ethereum or Ripple actually understands what they are buying, but that’s unlikely. Most probably saw the name on a top 10 market cap list somewhere. Some simply reallocated profits from Bitcoin into other coins on the same platform.

Visibility and access are two strong value drivers for alt-coins. The most highly visible coins are the ones with the most access. When I say access, I mean places or exchange houses where you can easily buy or trade the crypto. In fact, two of the best performing coins are from the most popular trading houses (one is up 71% and the other 150% in the last 7 days).

Some cryptos can be purchased on almost any exchange. I refer to these as platform cryptos. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin are the most common examples of platform coins. These are all highly visible and highly accessible. You also need platform cryptos to trade other cryptos. It is not uncommon for a coin’s price to run up as soon as it is listed to a major exchange like Coinbase or Binance.

What data do I use for Strategy #2? I use a spreadsheet that tracks the performance of the top 50 cryptos by market. It includes a brief description of the top 50. I refer to this spreadsheet as “The Mall”. Not all coins that make it to The Mall are good, but they all have considerable backing (users, miners, consortiums, stakers, etc).

I don’t like to talk about the gains made in the crypto space because it is not a common experience. The truth is, most cryptos fail. I own a lot of coins worth $.00000001 to prove it. What keeps me in the game is the uncommon experience. Specifically, my research focuses on what these “uncommon” coins had in common six months ago.

What have I found:
  • Coins with a unique value proposition, i.e., location, development team, usage, technology, have grown the most over the last 6 months.
  • Dogecoin and Bytecoin grew ~400% and are still valued at less than a penny.
  • Another privacy focused coin, Verge, grew over 4,000%.
  • One of my favorite coins, RaiBlocks, gives everyone their own blockchain — it grew over 60,000% in the last six months.
  • Stellar, a coin specializing in digital IOUs is up 2,600% over the same time period.
  • The worst performing coin on The Mall is up 1% and that’s because it’s “tethered” to the USD. The name of this coin is Tether.
  • Of the 50 coins on The Mall today (1/21/2018), 30 were on the list 6 months ago.
  • Of the top 25 on the list 6 months ago, only one was not on the top 50 six months ago. In other words, the closer the coins were to the top of the list six months ago, the closer they were to the top of the list today.

 

Strategy #3 — (15%) The Incubator


We’ve covered Bitcoin, platform/exchange and high market cap coins. What about baby cryptos? This is by far the riskiest category. As a result, I only invest small amounts in this world of crypto. I also try to use faucets as much as possible.

My goal is to find 10–20 severely undervalued cryptos. Since visibility and access are hard to find at crypto infancy, I like to look for coins that have a high price to transactions ratio. The coins with the highest ratio are the ones I research further.

Parking lot: Transactions represent a buy or a sell order. The number is an absolute value. It is possible to have an increase in transactions from a sell-off.

Once I find an exchange, I look at the recent orders and the orders in the order book. I am looking for a market. If I see all sell orders, I walk away. If I see a mix of buy and sell orders on decent volume, I usually buy. If I see more buy orders than sell orders, I buy.

Parking lot: When I place a buy limit order, I always calculate the current exchange rate first. It is not uncommon for cryptos to trade at a price that is higher or lower than the actual cross when calculated. These markets are so young that anomalies like this do exist. I then place my limit order slightly below the calculated cross.

So what did $10 in the top 10 cryptos by transaction to price (T/P) produce? 2014 was a bad year for cryptos altogether — nearly the entire investment was lost — but 2015, 2016 and 2017 saw profits of $134,707, $160 and $49,251, respectively. There is no guarantee that this strategy will work next year, but I like the upside potential.

What data do I use for Strategy #3? I use a spreadsheet showing me the T/P for all 1300+ cryptos sorted from highest to lowest. T/P is not a magical indicator, but I use it as a way to focus my research.

Important: To mitigate risk, only transfer fiat or coin to the exchange when you are ready to trade it. The exchange is not a place to store or park your coin. Buy your coin and then transfer it to an offline wallet immediately. Leaving it in the exchange is exposing yourself to unnecessary risk.

 

Final Thoughts: Once You Go Crypto, There’s No Going Back

As much as I love Bitcoin, it has flaws. The biggest flaw is its link between security (validation) and transaction cost (miner incentive). That said, I have no doubt the issue will be a non-issue by the time mining rewards end, but it feels like a giant asteroid. I’m excited by all the solutions circulating about how to kill the asteroid, but I also feel the need to mitigate the impact of this issue on my portfolio by investing in other cryptos. I’m not alone, though I may be alone in my reasoning.

2017 saw a surge of funding into Bitcoin, but that surge is small compared to the amount that flowed into alt-coins. Bitcoin was the conduit for a reallocation of recent profits made in all asset classes, including Bitcoin. Those funds were reallocated to alt-coins. As you can see from the chart below, for the past 4 years, Bitcoin represented ~88% of the entire crypto market cap. At the end of 2017, that dropped to 39%.





The total number of alt-coins in the market increased from 644 at the end of 2016 to over 1300 by the end of 2017. It is hard to go back to the promise of 12% per year when you’ve been making 12% (or more) per week, especially at a time when assets are overvalued.

There is nothing scientific about my approach. It is a work-in-progress. Though it is structured to mitigate risk, cryptos are still a highly volatile asset class. The goal is to be invested in a diversified cross-section of Bitcoin and alt-coin. This article and the crypto investment strategies discussed within it are intended for learning purposes only.

Trump’s New SEC Chairman Fighting For Control Over Bitcoin

Summary

  • Many people are interested in cryptocurrencies, but are concerned about government intervention.
  • The SECs Chairman Jay Clayton made a statement about cryptos last month that was largely overlooked.
  • Clayton is doubling down on the “21(A) Report” at a time when his regulatory counterpart is embracing Bitcoin.
  • It appears a showdown is brewing: who controls the regulation of the fastest growing asset in the world.

I enjoy talking to people about the viability of bitcoin. It appears to have a different value proposition for everyone. For some, there is no value proposition because they are certain the government is going to shut it all down. These people are not stupid — they know their government. For this reason, I think it’s important to track statements made by government institutions like the Federal Reserve and the SEC pertaining to Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

SEC Chairman Jay Clayton

 

On December 11, 2017, the SEC issued a statement regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
“This statement,” said SEC Chairman Jay Clayton sworn in by Trump in January of 2017, “provides my general views on the cryptocurrency and ICO markets…
Among the more interesting points Clayton points out in his statement are the following:

1) “to date no initial coin offerings have been registered with the SEC.”

2) “The SEC also has not to date approved for listing and trading any exchange-traded 
products (such as ETFs) holding cryptocurrencies or other assets related to cryptocurrencies.

3) “If any person today tells you otherwise, be especially wary.

Translation: The SEC has not approved any crypto or ETF.

“Please also recognize,” Clayton goes on to say,
that these markets span national borders and that significant trading may occur on systems and platforms outside the United States. Your invested funds may quickly travel overseas without your knowledge. As a result, risks can be amplified, including the risk that market regulators, such as the SEC, may not be able to effectively pursue bad actors or recover funds.
It is Clayton’s job to protect investors, but I think he goes beyond that role here. In particular, he tells investors to be weary because at any point in time someone could run away with your money overseas — as if this can’t happen with other investments.

This is a specious argument. Your invested funds may quickly travel overseas if you invest in stocks as well. In fact, they very likely do. Corporations spend the money we invest with them overseas all the time, why not? So yeah, this is a risk, but nothing we aren’t already very much accustomed to with our current system of currency, which is over 90% digital.

On a good note, regarding ICOs, Clayton believes that:
initial coin offerings — whether they represent offerings of securities or not — can be effective ways for entrepreneurs and others to raise funding, including for innovative projects.
So that’s good, but he goes on to say that:
replacing a traditional corporate interest recorded in a central ledger with an enterprise interest recorded through a blockchain entry on a distributed ledger may change the form of the transaction, but it does not change the substance.
Translation: “The reason I like ICOs is because they’re essentially IPOs. If these are really IPOs, I (the SEC) should be regulating them.”

The 21(A) Report

 

Clayton has two options regarding his views on crypto. He can say that ICOs and cryptos are legal or illegal. Here Clayton does not mix words. He urges market professionals to use a document referred to as (the “21(A) Report) as legal precedent. The 21 Report is an investigative report released in July of 2017 in the SEC vs. The DAO.
“In the 21(A) Report,” Clayton says,
the Commission applied longstanding securities law principles to demonstrate that a particular token constituted an investment contract and therefore was a security under our federal securities laws.
He goes on to say that,
brokers, dealers and other market participants that allow for payments in cryptocurrencies, allow customers to purchase cryptocurrencies on margin, or otherwise use cryptocurrencies to facilitate securities transactions should exercise particular caution, including ensuring that their cryptocurrency activities are not undermining their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer obligations.
Or what? This statement may sound threatening to those worried about government intervention, but it’s more like the roar of a toothless tiger. Money laundering disclosures are a joke in the financial industry. Just during the week of Christmas, the Federal Register announced that the Trump Administration would be waiving fraud and corruption fines for Citigroup (5-year exemption), JPMorgan (5-year exemption), Barclays (5-year exemption), UBS (3-year exemption), and Deutsche Bank (3-year exemption). This is the same list of megabanks that the Obama Administration extended one-year waivers to as well, though it is particularly troubling that Trump, unlike Obama, owes these banks a large amount of money. Even if the exemptions weren’t in place, any fines rendered are a tenth of a percent of the profits made. What’s ironic is that the SEC has been rendered impotent over the last five years by the very institutions that are asking for its protections today.

 

What’s Next: Wall Street Is At Odds With Itself Over Bitcoin

In my next article we’ll continue to look at the battle brewing between the CFTC and the SEC. Both want control over this growing industry. On the one hand government regulators like the SEC want to shut Bitcoin down. On the other hand, the CFTC recently approved bitcoin futures contracts for several institutions including the CME, CBOE and Cantor Fitzgerald. Both sides have many stakeholders with deep pockets. My money is on Bitcoin.

Disclosure: I am/we are long cryptos. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.

Mine Cryptocurrency For Free Using Coinpot: The Bitcoin Faucet Experiment

Bitcoin Faucets are a great way to obtain cryptocurrency if you don’t have the funds to invest in Bitcoin, but still want to invest in this growing asset class. Who knows what Bitcoin will be worth in 7 years.

 

Mine Bitcoin Directly From Your Computer

You don’t have to be wealthy to invest in crypto. You can mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies through what are referred to as “Bitcoin Faucets”. To make a “claim” on one of these Bitcoin faucets all you have to do is register and follow the claim instructions. Claim instructions generally tell you to click on a captcha that proves you are human to make the claim.

 

What are Bitcoin Faucets?

A “faucet” is a term used in the cryptocurrency world. It means a place where you can go to claim a small amount of crypto (like 1% of $.01). There are hundreds of faucets out there. Some are scams, some are real.

 At first I (like many others) dismissed this as a Ponzi scheme. It isn’t. You are investing your time, nothing else. Faucet owners get paid by advertisers and in exchange they give you a portion of those earnings. I’ve been doing it for about a month and have made a successful withdrawal of coins to my wallet. I’ve also researched these faucets and they are highly reputable.

All you need to sign up for the faucet is an email address and a computer. Never give your ID, address or any payment information to any faucet.

 

Bitcoin Faucet Claims Are Small

Early investors of Bitcoin paid just $.06 for a Bitcoin. A $100 investment seven years ago would be worth $28 million today. One year later at $3.19, $100 would have bought you 31 Bitcoin. In 2013, Bitcoin really took off to $724. Six months ago, in June 2017, no one thought Bitcoin could go much higher than $2,500. At the end of 2017, Bitcoin was trading for $13,170.

 No wonder people are fascinated with Bitcoin as an investment.

The biggest complaint about Bitcoin faucets is that “the amount of the claim is small.” If you are already wealthy or got in on cryptocurrency 7 years ago, I can understand your concern. Bitcoin faucets make small claims, but you never know where Bitcoin will be trading in 7 years. Still, this is a valid concern, especially for people with bills to pay and no extra time on their hands.

 This is my response to these concerns:

 1) The amount is small, but there are ways to maximize your earnings. Each faucet, like a game, has a few secrets that can greatly increase your earnings, sometimes by 500%. I’ll explain the key to maximizing your claim amount for each faucet in a moment.

 2) You can’t make a decent income by yourself, you need referrals. Those referrals must be users as well. It is not enough to simply give someone else your referral code. You also need to help them optimize the claim amount.

 3) Bitcoin is the front-runner in the fastest growing asset class in the world. As you can see from the chart below: the value of Bitcoin is highly volatile and tends to go up over time.





This is perhaps the most important aspect of this experiment for me. It gives anyone with an email address the ability to earn/mine crypto, just like Bitcoin miners were doing 7 years ago.

 In one year the value of the Bitcoin you have may be 10x what it is today. It could also be 10x less, but at least you don’t lose any money if you “mined” your Bitcoin from a Bitcoin faucet. In other words, the value of what you hold may be small today, but the value of cryptos is going up and if the trend continues, this is a way for you (for everyone) to invest even if you don’t have the money. If you don’t have access to your own computer, go to a computer lab or a library. Use your phone. It’s also a great way to hedge against those dollars in your savings. As the value of cryptocurrencies goes up, it will be against the dollar.

 4) These faucets give out more than Bitcoin. They also give out Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Dash and Dogecoin. You are actually earning a diversified set of cryptos. Each one of these is on the top 50 list of cryptos by market capitalization, which is to say they have a lot of growth potential.

 5) Finally, think of your daily claim potential as you would interest on savings. The amount may be small, but it has the potential to add up over time. Also keep in mind, inflation is going up. The value of a dollar in savings may not be worth what it is today. Much of the interest in Bitcoin is due to a loss of interest in the US dollar.

 

What will I be compensated for this experiment?

You will be compensated in the crypto that you earn.

 

Why only 100?

In my research model you only need 100 referrals to optimize your results. Of course, you are always welcome to do more. As you grow your referral base, you may want to limit the number of people as well.

 You need to be able to answer questions and help each person, regardless of their level of understanding. In fact, if they know how to use faucets already you can show them the tips I provide, but you may not want them in your 100 referral group. Not that they won’t be a good referral, but because the goal of the experiment is to help those who can benefit from this the most. This is social entrepreneurship at its best. You benefit the most from helping those that need it the most.

 

How To Start Making Claims

You will need an email address and a computer. You will never need any ID, payment information, or password information to do a faucet.

These are the steps you will go through at a high level:
 
Step 1: Sign up for a Coinpot MicroWallet (https://coinpot.co/). This is a where each faucet will send your “claim”. When you reach your withdrawal minimum, you will want to move your crypto currency from your software wallet (CoinPot) to another wallet.
 
Step 2: Sign up with each of the following faucets. Each one of these faucets is already connected to your Coinpot MicroWallet. As long as you sign up with the same email address you used to sign up for your Coinpot, they are automatically connected. Play around with each faucet a bit to get a feel for how this works. Please use my referral codes to sign up for the faucet.

 Moon Bitcoin
 Moon Dodgecoin
 Moon Litecoin
 Moon BitcoinCash
 MoonDash
 Bit Fun
 Bonus Bitcoin

 Step 3: Optimize your claim amount on each faucet. I’ve modeled out the performance of each faucet.

 Each faucet has its own incentive structure. In general there are two different structures. Your goal is to maximize the claim by paying attention to the incentive structure.

Moon Bitcoin

This is a unique faucet. It pays out in Bitcoin. It is the only incentive structure with 5 different bonus categories. Each bonus category gives you the ability to double your claim amount. It also pays at 50% for referrals. This makes Moon Bitcoin one of the best opportunities in the Coinpot faucet network. In addition to referrals, Moon Bitcoin also rewards the following:

 1) Loyalty bonus — Action: make a claim at least once a day. This is the easiest bonus. All you have to do is make a claim every day and you get a bonus. If you miss a day, it resets back to 1 and you have to walk up to 100% again.

 2) Referral bonus — Action: refer at least 100 people to take full advantage of the referral bonus.

 In addition to getting 50% of your referral’s claims, you also get a 1% bonus for every person you sign up — up to 100%. This bonus has a ceiling of 100 people, but your referral commission does not.

 3) Offer Bonus — Action: do 10 offers to take full advantage of the 100% claim bonus. This bonus has a ceiling of 10 offers.
4) Mystery Bonus — Do nothing and earn this bonus.

 5) Mining Bonus — Mine on your computer for a 100% bonus depending on your hash rate. This is new.

 There’s one other thing that is absolutely critical in your claim amount. This is true for all 6 faucets — the number of times you claim can drastically increase your daily claim amount. For example, based on the current claim rate which is published on the Moon Bitcoin site, if you claim every 5 minutes for 4 weeks you get 16,128 satoshi (assuming no referrals or bonus opportunities). However, if you claim every 4 weeks you get 111 satoshi.
 
The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, at least once a day for the loyalty bonus. You want to refer at least 100 people to take advantage of the 50% referral commission and max out on the 1% per referral bonus. You want to do 10 offers to take advantage of the offer bonus. You can also get a bonus for mining on your computer. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

Moon Dogecoin

Moon Dogecoin is like Moon Bitcoin, but pays out in Dogecoin. All the Moon faucets have the same basic structure, but not as many bonus options.

 1) Loyalty bonus — Action: make a claim at least once a day. This is the easiest bonus. All you have to do is make a claim every day and you get a bonus. If you miss a day, it resets back to 1 and you have to walk up to 100% again.

 2) Referral bonus — Action: refer at least 100 people to take full advantage of the referral bonus. In addition to getting 25% (not 50% like Moon Bitcoin) of your referral’s claims, you also get a 1% bonus for every person you sign up — up to 100%. This bonus has a ceiling of 100 people, but your referral commission does not.

 3) Mystery Bonus — Do nothing and earn this bonus.

 The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, at least once a day for the loyalty bonus. You want to refer at least 100 people to take advantage of the 25% referral commission and max out on the 1% per referral bonus. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

Moon Litecoin

Moon Litecoin is the same as Moon Dogecoin.

 1) Loyalty bonus — Action: make a claim at least once a day. This is the easiest bonus. All you have to do is make a claim every day and you get a bonus. If you miss a day, it resets back to 1 and you have to walk up to 100% again.

 2) Referral bonus — Action: refer at least 100 people to take full advantage of the referral bonus. In addition to getting 25% (not 50% like Moon Bitcoin) of your referral’s claims, you also get a 1% bonus for every person you sign up — up to 100%. This bonus has a ceiling of 100 people, but your referral commission does not.

 3) Mystery Bonus — Do nothing and earn this bonus.

 The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, at least once a day for the loyalty bonus. You want to refer at least 100 people to take advantage of the 25% referral commission and max out on the 1% per referral bonus. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

MoonCash

Newest faucet with highest claim amount. The bonus structure is the same as MoonDoge and MoonLitecoin, but pays out in Bitcoin Cash. You can optimize your daily claims by doing the following:

 1) Loyalty bonus — Action: make a claim at least once a day. This is the easiest bonus. All you have to do is make a claim every day and you get a bonus. If you miss a day, it resets back to 1 and you have to walk up to 100% again.

 2) Referral bonus — Action: refer at least 100 people to take full advantage of the referral bonus. In addition to getting 25% (not 50% like Moon Bitcoin) of your referral’s claims, you also get a 1% bonus for every person you sign up — up to 100%. This bonus has a ceiling of 100 people, but your referral commission does not.

 3) Mystery Bonus — Do nothing and earn this bonus.

 The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, at least once a day for the loyalty bonus. You want to refer at least 100 people to take advantage of the 25% referral commission and max out on the 1% per referral bonus. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

MoonDash

MoonDash is the same as MoonDoge, MoonLitecoin and MoonCash, but it pays out in Dash.

 1) Loyalty bonus — Action: make a claim at least once a day. This is the easiest bonus. All you have to do is make a claim every day and you get a bonus. If you miss a day, it resets back to 1 and you have to walk up to 100% again.

 2) Referral bonus — Action: refer at least 100 people to take full advantage of the referral bonus. In addition to getting 25% (not 50% like Moon Bitcoin) of your referral’s claims, you also get a 1% bonus for every person you sign up — up to 100%. This bonus has a ceiling of 100 people, but your referral commission does not.

 3) Mystery Bonus — Do nothing and earn this bonus.

 The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, at least once a day for the loyalty bonus. You want to refer at least 100 people to take advantage of the 25% referral commission and max out on the 1% per referral bonus. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

Bit Fun

Bitfun is slightly different. It pays out in Bitcoin at a higher rate than MoonBitcoin. You can also play games and do offers. Playing games does not increase faucet amount rate, however. You can only make a claim every 15 minutes as opposed to 5 min. with the other Moon faucets.

 Referral bonus — Action: refer as many people as possible to take advantage of the 50% commission.

 The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can, but there is no loyalty bonus. You want to refer as many people as you can to take advantage of the 50% referral commission. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 

Bonus Bitcoin

Bonus Bitcoin pays out in Bitcoin. The amount you can claim varies, but you can get a bonus of 5% on all your claims and referrals for the past 3 days as long as you make a claim on the previous day. You can only make a claim every 15 minutes as opposed to 5 min. with the other Moon faucets.
 
Referral bonus — Action: refer as many people as possible to take advantage of the 50%
 commission.
 
The key to optimizing this faucet is to claim as often as you can every 15 min. You want to refer as many people as you can to take advantage of the 50% referral commission and the 72 hr loayalty bonus. Focusing on these actions can greatly increase your claims.

 Step 4: Final Step — Take what I’ve written here and make it your own. You have full license to plagiarize all you want. First, replace my referral codes with your own referral codes (please let me know if you need help finding your codes). Send it out to your friends and family. Set up a seminar at your community center or library. Send it out on Facebook/Twitter/Instagram. If you do add additional faucets to your list, be sure to vet them out for your base.

 You can look up the price of any cryptocurrency on https://coinmarketcap.com/.

How To Analyze Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)

Summary

  • ICO's are no different from any other investment, you have to do your due diligence.
  • The process starts with researching the offering and the team behind the offering.
  • The process ends with finding a good price to buy at.

I've been asked on several occasions how to analyze an ICO. The process of analyzing an ICO is no different from any other investment. 

First a few reminders: Don't ever invest your money in anything without feeling comfortable with it. I also wouldn't invest in any crypto-coin with money that you can't afford to lose. As much as I like crypto, extreme caution is required in new markets. There are tiers of risk in the crypto-world and ICOs are among the highest because you have no historical data. 

With that said, let's take a quick look at scams.

Vetting Out Scams

Before getting to the analysis process, I want to put an umbrella of context over your goal. I hate to say this, but there are many scams in this space. The truth is, like the Federal Reserve and quantitative easing, a good scam is hard to detect. These are a few things you can look for:
  1. An incoherent message or purpose.
  2. Project sounds similar to others -- you may even find an identical white paper or technical detail being used.
  3. Fake credentials and websites -- click on ALL of the links of the website to see where they lead and if they're live.
  4. No names or transparency. You want to see faces and those faces should be attached to real people. You can vet people by looking at social media accounts or LinkedIn. Even these can be faked.
Keep this list in the back of your mind when going through the analysis process.

The Analysis

The same questions you have for any start-up should apply to ICOs. Analysis is a function of 6 main areas: Quality, Team, Team Investment, Blockchain, Social Media, Total Project Funding
  1. The first thing you want to look at is the quality of the project. Is it something that looks thrown together, or does it seem like a well thought out idea. Quality is a large category that can be split into others. In general, it refers to the idea potential. Is the road map overly optimistic? What are the merits or features of the token used? Does the coin derive value from the product or something else? How will it be used (for transactions or investment)? How is value created for token holders (staked interest, a % of profit)? How many tokens are being issued and is there a cap on the number of tokens.
  2. The Team: This is a group of people you are going to trust with your money. Where have they worked, what have they worked on before, do they have advisers? Are they qualified? You also want to note how many developers they have? Do those developers have profiles on Github?
  3. How does the project use blockchain? The value proposition for using blockchain should be clearly stated. Is the market big enough to benefit from the new technology or service provided? The start-up is going to have to unseat others in the market -- can they do that?
  4. Browse social media to see what people are saying. Can you pick up a general feeling about how people in the community feel about the ICO? I tend to shy away from ICOs backed by celebrities. I never buy an ICO endorsed by a bank or government (Venezuela excluded). If I do pick them up, it's after the "pump and dump".
  5. Check to see how much the team has already invested. Have they invested their own money in the venture?
  6. How much money does the total project need? I'm not fond of pre-sales, but if there is one I want to know how many offerings will take place. I also want to know what the allocation process will be.
If you can get to this point, you can progress to the next step: technical analysis.

Moving From Fundamental To Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is difficult without historical prices, but there are some tricks. Now that you know what you want, accumulate low. You want to buy at pre-pump prices.

There are a group of ICO buyers that like to buy and sell into the pump. They have no intention of holding. Once these guys bail, where is everyone going to hang out? That's where you need to place your order. Look for the buyer with the largest order at these prices and place your order just before theirs. You also want to monitor the number of coins in circulation during the ICO. Distributed coins shouldn't be for more than 40%. Too many is a sign of a dump. Wait and pick up on pre-pump prices.

How Is Silicon Valley Preparing For Mass Automation?

"Most humans won't have any saleable labor in the future", said one ex-techie in the video below.

"Techies can see that the future is coming and they are reacting to that future".

What is that future: automation.

The result is a big rise in unemployment and it has some folks in Silicon Valley "terrified", especially people with money and/or resources to lose. One venture capitalist in the video below refers to what's coming as the new French Revolution.
 

This is an enlightening video about how some ex-Silicon Valleyers, the coders of automation, are preparing for the next 20 years.

What do they fear: biological weapons, nuclear war, economic collapse.

What are Silicon Valleyers collecting: guns, renewable energy, food, generators, masks, health supplies

Silicon Vs Doomsday Prepper

Even though techies are buying $500k bunkers and guns like the stereotypical "doomsday prepper", they are also doggedly focused on "quality of life". Many of them view what's coming as the "new economy" rather than "the coming apocalypse".

Perhaps the most persuasive aspect of the "techie prepper's" argument is that unlike the typical "doomsday prepper", these are the men and women that were hired to create a program for the average American job, which is to say they know what they're talking about. In other words, if the guy sitting next to me on the plane is scared, I'm ordering a drink. If the flight attendant is scared, I'm ordering two drinks, reading the emergency manual and saying my prayers.

Translation: A techie warning about the impact of automation is far more reliable than the average guy sitting next to you on the plane, even if that guy claims to have biblical proof (prophesies always tend to be off by a few years).

So who's the pilot of the tech world and what's s/he got to say about flight status?

There are many noteworthy pilots in the tech world, but Elon Musk is among the best. Here's a quick clip on what he thinks about the impact of automation.


This is a data driven response to a fair question about the impact of automation around the world. His directness is both refreshing and startling in its implication.

What I like about the tech version of the coming "apocalypse" is that it is surprisingly optimistic. Instead of scripture, prophecy or fake news, techies are basing their prediction on data. They know that what's on the other side of the hump is a time period when people are not valued for their work. For some this is a terrifying prospect, even for the techie, but for others it is a kind of Eden. To gain value from your own self-betterment and the betterment of mankind is both noble and obtainable when much of the work is being done for you by machines. Now, we just just need to reclaim the stolen wealth accumulated by central banks -- enter crypto -- and use that as the basis for universal income.

Final Thoughts: "Prepping" for the future brings together two profiles often depicted as being diametrically opposed. This unlikely coalition is starting to form the backbone of a movement. And, this notion that techies are somehow responsible for the downfall of society is as ridiculous as blaming war on the soldiers that fight it. Automation is an inevitable conclusion to market demand.

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